July Weather Summary for Glens Falls

The month of July can be summed up simply as being VERY wet and cool. The monthly normal rainfall for Glens Falls is 4.26". The top 3 wettest July's on record are: #1 is 8.31" (1994), #2 8.25" (1996) and 7.94" (1915). The Warren County airport recorded 8.05", making July 2021 the third wettest on record. At my location (3.5 miles SW of the airport) I measured 8.31". In addition to the monthly rainfall being approximately twice the normal, rain was observed on all but 5 days! The month started off with 14 consecutive days of rain being observed; with 12 of the first 14 days having measureable rain.
The average monthly temperature was 67.7° at the airport which was 2.0° BELOW normal; at my location it was 69.1° or 0.6° BELOW normal. In addition to the cooler temperatures the month did not record a temperature of 90°. The last time that a July went without a 90° was 2017. Below is a more detailed breakdown of July 2021's weather in Glens Falls.

Addition to the above: From the NWS Albany The numbers are in! July ended up being the 3rd wettest for Albany (8.96") and Glens Falls (8.06"), and 13th wettest for Poughkeepsie (6.06"). In fact, the 8.96" that fell in Albany was the 10th wettest month of all time! The 8.06" for Glens Falls was also the 10th wettest month on record.

Record snowfall for Glens Falls?

 The snow storm of December 16-17, 2020 was definitely one for the record books. If not for the most snow from a single storm, definitely one for the greatest amount of snow to fall in a 24 hour period. (Then again most of the snow fell in 12 hours!)

After researching climate data  from the Northeast Regional Climate Center (NRCC) for Glens Falls I have come up with the following:

First there are big "time gaps" in the data. The climate database now includes a hodge-podge of weather observations from various locations around but close to Glens Falls; that is the new database includes records from more than the current "official" site for Glens Falls - the Warren county airport  (aka Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport).

With the expansion of the database using other sites within the "Glens Falls region" now allows for records to be extended back to 1893. But once again as I stated above there are huge gaps of months, weeks and YEARS in using this data set. So when and if new "missing" data is uncovered much of my quick research is subject to change. 

But for NOW, using the current database as it exists this is what I have come up with:

For the month of December the storm of the 16th and 17th was a record for the following categories:

1) A daily snowfall record on the 17th - 32.5"

2) The most snow to have fallen in a 24 hour period for any given month.

3) A Dec. Snowstorm record: - 33.8" (1.3" observed on the 16th prior to midnight). The previous record was 18" set on Dec 14th-15th, 1915.

In terms of all-time snow storms, again using the database going back to 1893 (snowfall record for the period from 1893 through  2020), the snowfall from the December 16th-17th storm would rank as the top storm of all-time for Glens Falls. The total was 33.8"; the previous record was 33" of snow measured on February 14, 1914.

                                                  (Image from NWS Albany, NY WSFO)

Cutting the Cable Cord

First things first! If you chose to undertake this project GOOGLE is your best friend. Second, the devices and apps that I mention in this blog are what I used. Please, do not take them as a personal endorsement. There are numerous other devices that can work just as good for you or perhaps better than the ones that I used.

Why I Cut the Cord

For very basic cable service I was paying $16 / month plus I had to pay rental for two boxes. Since most of the basic cable package is comprised of  FREE TV, I asked myself: Why am I paying for it? Then during the end of last year the local cable company said everyone needed new HD boxes to watch cable. These boxes were free (or so the cable company said they were). I had issues with the boxes that were sent to me. Their support was clueless. I also found out that their very basic cable package was going to have a price increase of $10. Hmmmm, why am I paying for this then. Time to cut the cord.

What do you want your "cable-less" TV to be like?

WRITE DOWN what YOU want on your TV. Do you want the latest TV shows? News? Weather? Movies? Or do you just want the local TV channels and that’s all you want. Depending on what you want your TV at home to be like will determine what device(s) you need. IF you want more than just "free" OTA TV you will still need internet access. So you will still have to get that through your local cable company.

What are your choices?

If you only want the “free” local TV channels the ONLY thing you will need is an Over The Air TV antenna, that's it!. These come in two varieties: outdoor and indoor. While an outdoor OTA is probably the best option (and surprisingly they are not very expensive. As a matter of fact the cost of an outdoor antenna is about the same as a good indoor one.) The downside to an outdoor OTA is installing it. If you go this route proper installation is a must along with the antenna having to be grounded (against possible lightning strikes). This cost that must be factored into your plan. 

For an indoor antennae there are many options available to you. Both indoor and outdoor antennae can be purchased online (Amazon, Wal-Mart, etc.) or in stores that have a digital and or electronics department like Wal-Mart.

What you need to know about antennae

First, you need to know how far away you are from the TV transmitters. This website, TV Fool should be consulted FIRST! It is easy very to use. Just enter the information in the appropriate boxes, wait for your report to be generated and wallah you have a nice map along with what TV stations you can get based on your location. Based on the report you can then determine what range antenna you should purchase. (You’ll also need this report to help you determine  in what direction you should point your antenna. I’ll talk more about this a bit later in this blog.)

Antennae should list the range of how many miles away that they will be able to “pick up” TV signals. Most common ranges are 30, 50 and 70 miles. (Based on the research that I did (using GOOGLE) I have to say the latter range is a bit of a stretch; while it is possible to receive "distant" stations just know that HDTV signals tend to be “weak” from transmitters that are located far away.)

Antenna placement and location

Based on the report that you got from TV Fool you have to figure out your location relative to the transmitters to properly “point” the antenna. For example, I live to the north of the transmitters so I have to have my antenna facing toward the south. After you “point” your antenna in the proper direction the next step is its location or placement in/on your home. The general rule here is the HIGHER UP the better the signal reception.

My Procedure for Cutting the Cord

I’ll list what I wanted on my now NO CABLE TV and then what devices I procured.

I wanted OTA TV from Albany.  I also want to be able to see some sporting events, movies. Wanting movies and sports on my TV would require me getting apps which I will talk about later in this blog.

My devices:

1. OTA indoor antenna
2. Amazon TV Firebox (attached to TV downstairs)
3. Roku stick (attached to TV upstairs)
4. ISP

I also have internet service provided by Earthlink. I have used them for over 20 years. Under federal rules, the local cable company has to allow alternative internet service providers the use of their local cable. Its high speed internet just like the local cable company provides but I am paying $20 LESS per month for my internet access.

Initial steps that I did: Initially, I bought an RCA indoor TV antenna at Wal-Mart. It was rated for 50 miles. It was on sale for $20 dollars and came with an offer for a 1 month free trial of SLING TV and a free Roku Stick to use with Sling TV. If I decided not to keep Sling TV, I could still keep the Roku stick. This is why I wound up getting this antenna.

While I was waiting the arrival of the RS (which came 3 days later), I began to “experiment” with this antenna.This part of going cable-free is probably the most tedious part of the project. It involves a bit of trial and error and it also involves knowing a bit about TV signal propagation.

First I tried placing it on the wall in the den downstairs, above where one TV is located. Being that it was on an interior wall, along with other obstructions I could only get ONE TV station. Obviously this was not a good location. 

Now,  one of the drawbacks to this antenna is that the coaxial cable was only 16 feet long and it is NOT detachable from where it connects into the antenna. So I then went upstairs to my study-office-Man Cave where TV #2 is located. I placed the antenna in the window, had my TV perform a channel scan and bingo I got additional TV stations but not all (based on what the TV Fool report said I should receive. See image below).

When the RS arrived I configured it with my home network. Now with the SLING TV app (I have a few more apps, too which I will mention later) and the SLING “package” that I had, I could now watch what I wanted to and I could also switch my TV input to local TV channels, too.

Since my OTA antenna was not getting ALL of the local channels (by the way – when I say all of the local channels, I mean the primary channels [for me WNYT, WRGB, WTEN, and PBS, along with all of their associated subchannels, too], I decided to purchase a Mohu Leaf (indoor) antenna. This one afforded me more options and it was highly rated too. The cost was $50 (at Wal-Mart). One of the advantages of this antenna is that the antenna cord is detachable where it hooks into the back of the antenna.

So I swapped the RCA antenna with the Mohu. Then I did a channel scan on the upstairs TV and I wound up getting even a few more channels but still not all. The window in my Man Cave faces toward the southeast; based on the TV Fool report I needed to be facing toward the south. I looked at my options: on the upper floor of my house there are two bedrooms that have a southern exposure, however if I tried to use them it would require running cable across the upper floor of the house so this was a no go. But all was not lost! The attic has 3 windows in it – facing to the west, to the east and to the SOUTH!

So  I brought the Mohu to the attic. I replaced the 10 feet of cable with 50 feet. I placed the antenna in the east window did a channel scan and once again a few more stations came in but still not all of them. Next step I tried the south window, did another channel scan and yes I struck gold, I finally got all of the stations!

As you can see the tedious part of this procedure is having to find the best location for your antenna and then do the channel scans to see if you are getting all the stations that you're "supposed" to get. However, it is worth the effort to perform these.

Final step and another (optional) device

I’m a nice guy. I like to share as much as possible. My TV in my Man Cave was the only one getting all the FREE OTA stations. If someone else wanted to watch an OTA channel they would have to come upstairs into the Cave. So to avoid the inconvenience of having to share the cave at a time when I was doing school work or was watching a movie I had to find a way to “share” the OTA TV.

This where an AirTV streaming box and app come in. The box costs 120 dollars and the AirTV app is free. What the box allows is for one to be able to stream OTA TV channels to other TVs (and portable devices). One is limited though to only 2 streams at the same time; for e.g. I can watch WNYT upstairs and PBS downstairs at the same time but if I also wanted to watch another channel (or the same one) on my tablet, I would not be able to do this. You need the AirTV app installed on both RS or Amazon box and your smart phone, Android device or iPad or iPhone for installation. (I know it seems weird and overwhelming but its not. The instructions are very easy, even a cave man can do it!) The app on your portable device also allows you to be able to watch local TV on that device NO matter where you are.

My Apps: I like Sling TV. If you dig around on their website you will see that they have a  one week free trial available. Many antennae also have deals for Sling when you purchase that particular antenna. I have the SLING TV package that costs $25/month plus I added on the “Hollywood” package for an additional $5/month. This add-on allows me to watch TCM. (Go to the SLING website to see what additional add-ons they have (such as for HBO, Cinemax, NHL Network, etc.) and what channels you get with just the basic package. The neat thing about Sling is that it’s a la carte. You pay for what you want and its month to month, no long term contracts.

Sling, Netflix, Hulu, AirTv and Pluto TV (check this app out its pretty cool and its FREE) are installed on my RS and Firebox.  On the RS I also have the Roku Channel app. I also have Amazon Prime, too but I rarely use it for watching TV shows or movies.

Okay let me summarize things: What I needed to cut the cord:

1. Internet access, 
2. an OTA antenna, 
3. a Roku Stick or Amazon Firebox
4. additional apps.

What it cost me:

One time costs: Mohu leaf antenna $50. AirTV streaming device $118.  If you don’t want to stream OTA TV then this won’t be an expense for you. My Firebox was a Christmas present from my youngest son a few years ago and the RS was a freebie so these didn't cost me anything. However if you want more than just OTA Tv you will need to get one of these for each TV. GOOGLE around for the cost of each device. The Roku cost around 30 dollars. The Amazon Firebox is a bit more.

Monthly costs: Internet $40. Sling TV $30. I am not including Netflix here since someone else is paying for it at the moment now and my Amazon Prime membership is a discounted one (student) membership. So basically with just SLING TV replacing my cable, my out of pocket expenses are only $30/month. Again the OTA TV stations are free.

Also note that I did not include phone service in my monthly expenses. I do not have phone service through my cable provider but I do have internet phone service. It only costs me $3.75/ month. If you want good internet phone service know, that like with NO CABLE TV in your house, there are many excellent options available to you that are both good and inexpensive if not FREE!  But to talk about them now would just make this already long post even longer. So I will make that another blog for another another day and time.

If you have any questions about cutting the cord start by GOOGLING them. Trust me its not a difficult project to DIY.

A LIST OF DEEP FREEZES AT GLENS FALLS, NY

DEEP FREEZES FOR GLENS FALLS, NY

A deep freeze is defined as a period of 10 consecutive days or longer where the temperature does  not get above 32°. This deep freeze climatology used the Northeast regional Climate Center database. The station is the Warren County Airport (now called the Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport). The period of record (POR) for the airport goes back to late 1944. Records are missing for some month in 1944 and 1947.
   
The most recent deep freeze from Dec 25th, 2017 through January 8, 2018 was a 15 day freeze. The last time a freeze of 15 days occurred was Dec 08-22, 1981.

40 Days Jan 3-Feb 11, 1985 34 Days Dec 16, 1969-Jan 16, 1970 29 Days Jan 14-Feb 11, 1948 28 Days Dec 22, 1976-Jan19, 1977 27 Days January 27-Feb 22, 1978 Jan 25- Feb 20, 2007 Jan 26-Feb 21, 2015 24 Days Jan 8-31, 1982 23 Days Dec 8-30, 1989 Dec 19, 2000 – Jan 10, 2001 Jan 6 – 28, 2001  22 Days Jan 30-Feb 20, 1979 21 Days Jan 2-22, 1945 20 Days Feb 2-21, 1958 Feb 7-26, 1968 Dec 30, 1968-Jan 17, 1967 Jan 21-Feb 9, 1977 Jan 24-Feb 12, 1980	14 Days Dec 11-24, 1945 Jan 10-24, 1978 Jan 17-30, 1987 13 Days Jan 24 – Feb 5, 1955 Jan 2-14, 1974 Jan 1-13, 1976 Jan 19-31, 2008 12 Days Dec 7-18, 1958 Jan 22-Feb 2, 1963 Nov 30-Dec 10, 1964 Dec 7-18, 1958 Jan 22-Feb 2, 1963 Nov 30-Dec 10, 1964 Dec 20, 1970 – Jan 2, 1971 Feb 1-12, 1974 Jan 15-26, 1976 Dec 23, 1983 – Jan 3, 1984 Dec 12-23, 1985 Feb 9-20, 1987 Feb 18- Mar 1, 1993 Jan 1-12, 1996 Jan 29-Feb 9, 2010 Jan 6-17, 2015	11 Days Jan 14-24, 1946 Jan 26-Feb 5, 1951 Jan 4-14, 1954 Dec 22, 1966 – Jan 1, 1967 Feb 7-17, 1967 Feb 26-Mar 8, 1978 Jan 3-13, 1979 Feb 22-Mar 4, 1982 Jan 02-12, 1988 10 Days Feb 18-27, 1946 Jan 24-Feb2, 1957 Feb 7-16, 1962 Jan 28-Feb 6, 1965 Jan 18-27, 1970 Jan 27-Feb 5, 1971 Dec 26, 1977 – Jan 4, 1978 Jan 13-22,1983 Feb 2-11, 1989 Jan 3-12, 1994 Jan 14-23, 1994 Dec 16-25, 2009 Jan 21-30, 2014 Feb 04-13, 2014 Feb 25-Mar 6, 2014
19 Days Dec 31, 1980-Jan 18, 1981 18 Days Jan 19 – Feb 5, 1945 Dec 27, 1967 – Jan 13, 1968 Jan 30-Feb 16, 1994 17 Days Jan 24- Feb 9, 1961 16 Days Jan 25-Feb 9, 1961 Dec 14-29, 1980 Jan 8-23, 1984 Jan 30/31-Feb 16, 1994 Dec 7-22, 1995 15 Days Dec 08-22, 1981 Dec 25, 2017- Jan 8, 2018

The Cryogenic Climate of Glens Falls New York

The airport is actually situated in Queensbury and is now called the Floyd Bennett Memorial Airport. The location of the airport can best be described as being in a rural location and in a "hollow". The elevation is 328 feet. The surrounding terrain is somewhat higher than the actual airport runway. The rural location and surrounding farmland allows for radiational cooling to occur at night. In addition the surrounding higher terrain allows for drainage of cool air down to the airport. And we also have an extensive snowpack across the region now. Yet another element that aids in "radiational" cooling.

For the longest I have wanted to organize a climatology database for this location using data from the Northeast Regional Climate Center (NRCC). Things that I wanted to do were show what were the warmest or coldest, wettest of a particular holiday or what was the longest heat wave for the site and so on. I started working on heat and heat waves for this location but be became sidetracked. Considering the cold wave we're going through now, it may not be a bad idea to continue this heat project but instead I decided to work on some of the colder aspects of the Glens Falls airport.

The Cold Facts 

Weather records for the airport go back to 1944. There are some periods of missing data for the months of January through April in 1944 and for the periods of April through October 1945 and February and March 1947.

On eleven separate occasions the airport has recorded a temperature of -30°F or lower. The lowest temperature recorded at the airport was -35° F on January 27, 1994. 1994 was a very cold winter here. The previous all-time record low of -34° F was set 11 days earlier. And on February 10 of that  year the thermometer dipped to -30° F.  In comparison Albany, NY's lowest temperature of record is -28° set on 19 January 1971. Albany has recorded a temperature of -20° or colder on 29 separate dates, while Glens Falls has recorded temperatures of -20° or lower a total of 129 times through January 2018!

   NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES OF A TEMPERATURE OF ≤ -30° F AT GLENS FALLS, NY

January 27, 1994   -35° (ALL-TIME Record low temp for location)

January 16, 1994   -34°

January 08, 1968   -33°

January 11, 1968   -33°

January 12, 1968   -33°

January 19, 1976   -32°

January 23, 1976   -32°

January 04, 1981   -31°

February 10, 1994 -30°

January 06, 1996   -30°

January 24, 2011   -30°

Our Current Cold Snap/"Deep Freeze"

Through January 7, 2017 the area has been enduring a 14 days stretch  with temperatures not surpassing 32° A "Deep Freeze" is defined as 10 or more consecutive days where the temperatures does not pass 32°. The last time Glens Falls had a deep freeze of 10 days was Feb 26 through Mar 6, 2014. The last time we had a 14 day deep freeze was Jan 17-30, 1987 and the last 15 day deep freeze was Dec 8-22, 1981. 

As excessive as this string of sub-freezing weather is (with many of the days and moreso nights accompanied by very low at times record temperatures) it can be worse. On 5 occasions there were 20 day stretches of sub-32° weather, there were each one occurrence of 21, 22, 24, 28, 29 and 34 day durations of deep freezes. 3 times each had 23 and 27 day ones.  Any guess what the longest stretch of days with a temperature < 32° for Glens Falls is?

40 DAYS! This happened in 1985 when from Jan 3 through February 11th the thermometer never rose past the freezing mark. Now that's a "Deep Freeze" for sure! In comparison the longest "Deep Freeze" for Albany, NY was 36 days in January-February 1945 (5 Jan through 9 February).

Reference:

Northeast Regional Climate Center NOWDATA for Glens Falls Airport. Access to the NOWDATA site through the following link : NRCC Regional Climate Data

The New Year's Weather

The new year is going to start the same way that the old year ended - FRIGID ! First let's look at some of the climatology for New Year's Day for both Albany and Glens Falls:

New Year's Day Climatology

ELEMENT	GLENS FALLS	ALBANY
WARMEST TEMP	66°/2007	57°/1966
WARMEST AVG.	57.5°/1950	46.5°/1966 and 1979
LOWEST TEMP	-7°/1957	-18°/1970
LOWEST AVG.	-18.5°/1994	-3.5°/1918
WETTEST	2.55"/1999	0.95"/1935
SNOWIEST	15.7"/1986	9.2"/1961

Temperature records go back to 1874 for Albany and 1944 for Glens Falls. Regarding snowfall for Glen's Falls, snow observations ceased at the site in 2003 when the site went to an automated observation system . However, I do not recall any heavy snow on New Year's Day since then.

New Year's Day 2018 Forecast

It will be frigid for both locations. In spite of abundant sunshine highs in Albany will be near 10° and for Glens Falls highs in the lower single numbers to near 5°. From the NWS in Albany, only 3 New Year's Day had a high temperature less than 10°. 2018 looks like it might be the 4th time for such an occurrence. In addition to the frigid air temperatures wind chills will make it feel colder thanks to a gusty NW wind. Daytime wind chill temperatures will range between -15° and -10°. The first night of 2018 will see readings to dip to -5° at Albany and -20° at Glens Falls which would be a record low temperature for this location.

Forecast for the rest of 1st week of 2018

A bit of thaw is expect during the Tuesday into early Thursday period. Highs will make it into the mid teens on Tuesday in both Albany and Glens Falls. On Wednesday even a bit more of warm-up low 20s for Albany and near 20° for Glens Falls. (Let's have a barbecue and breakout the shorts!). As for Thursday expect highs near 20 or low 20s in Albany and mid to upper teens for Glens Falls.

Also during Thursday through Friday a large storm is forecast to be moving north across the western Atlantic.  At this time it looks like it will be too far east to cause us any significant snow.

However, the large circulation around the storm will cause a strong NW-N airflow  to develop around its western perimeter. This flow of air will be from the arctic reaches of Canada so by the Friday into the next weekend we'll likely see (hard to believe) the coldest weather of this young winter season. It looks like more daytime highs in the digits or near 0 ° and widespread well below zero readings are likely during the nights. I can see the potential for readings near -20 to -25° Friday, Saturday and maybe next Sunday night at Glens Falls and across the Southern Adirondacks.

Deep Freeze

A deep freeze as defined by the National Weather Service is when the high temperature does not get above 32°. The longest stretch for Albany  where the high never got past the freezing mark was 36 days. This deep freeze spanned the period from January 5 to February 9 in 1945. Temperatures records for Albany go back to 1874. During this time period there have been dozens of deep freezes of varying length. The number of deep freezes that met the minimum 10 consecutive days is 18; the last deep freeze was in 2014, from February 25th to March 6th. 

The last time Albany got above 32 ° was on Christmas Day. So for Albany through the 31st of December it will be 6 days with a high temperature < 32°.  Glens Falls is on a 7 day stretch.  When you look ahead to the upcoming first week and weekend of 2018 and the expected temperatures, we can say with high confidence that we will be in a "Deep Freeze".  This extreme cold could last into the following week, too. 

Some longer range data indicates the possibility for a break around mid-January. By then we could see more seasonable temperatures. Something to look forward, to. Something I am not looking forward too is my heating bill that should be arriving this week!

References:

Climate date for New Year's Day and Deep Freeze dates courtesy of NWS Albany, NY

Climate Data for Glens Falls extracted from The Northeast regional Climate Center (NRCC) 

database 

Forecast maps from Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

More Cold - er Weather On The Way

(Fig.1) image from: www.geography.hunter.cuny.edu

   Since the source of arctic air is from near or within the snow and ice covered areas of the Arctic Circle (Fig. 1), it will be very dense and very dry. As it advances south and southeast from its source region it would tend to modify as it passes across a warmer land mass beneath it.

 (Fig.2) 28 Dec 2017 Snow on the Ground courtesy:

   However, thanks to an extensive snowpack across the interior parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes States north across Southern Canada (Fig.2)  this air will modify VERY little. Thus, we can expect the very cold weather to continue into the new year. Through New Year's Day we can expect bitter cold high and low temperatures to persist averaging about 25° BELOW normal.

   In addition, whenever we have even a slight breeze or stronger expect dangerously low wind chills to occur. Such will be the case through early tonight and again later Friday into Saturday (when it will be more of stiff wind vs. a gentle breeze). We'll also have more clouds on Friday through Saturday along with the chance for some periods of light snow or snow showers as a clipper moves through. With this low's passing brisk N and NW winds will kick in later Saturday along with a re-enforcing shot bitter and frigid air moving in for New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.

   There is very little change to the temperature forecast through 2 Jan; The "relatively" warmest day will be on Saturday when temperatures will make into the teens (perhaps some 20° or low 20s south of Albany). Otherwise, daytime highs will be in the single numbers to 10° and nighttime lows well below zero.

   Last but not least...there is the chance for a snowfall next week in the Wednesday through Friday period. I am already getting messages and emails regarding this possible snowfall. All I will say is that there is a possibility for snow. As is always the case track, intensity and speed of the storm (aka duration) will determine what we get or don't get. Be prepared for a lot of postings on this possible "storm" on Facebook, Twitter, Google+ or wherever else they are posted, to.

   Remember: check the SOURCE of the post. If its just a map of some model's snowfall forecast I would discount it. ANYONE can post a map of some computer forecast model without having any knowledge of what they are posting. SHARE any posts responsibly, too. Finally, please don't ask me about what "others" are saying we're going to get. I can only speak for myself. Obviously I'll have more on this over the days to come. Hope everyone is staying warm.

Arctic Cold Wave on the Way

Starting tonight arctic air will sweep down across the region. Over the next 7 days re-enforcing "shots" of arctic air will help to replenish the frigid air over us.

The 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicate a high probability for below normal temperatures from today thru 18 January 2018.

How cold will it get? Well the average high for Albany through the end of this month is 32° and for Glens Falls its 29°.  I'm forecasting high temperatures on Wednesday in the mid to upper teens for both of these locations locations.  For the Thursday through next Monday (New Year's Day)  forecast highs for  Glens Falls will only be in the mid and upper SINGLE numbers while Albany's highs will be near 10° or 12°.  In addition there is a very high probability for widespread SUB-ZERO nighttime temperatures in many locations over the next several nights, too. The last time Albany had a minimum temperature BELOW 0° was February 15th 2016. (Glens Falls has already had 2 days with low temperatures below 0° this month).

An if these very cold temperatures weren't bad enough when combined with periods of gusty winds in the forecast (like for tonight and Wednesday (Dec 27th)  you can expect it to feel even colder , Expect wind chills ranging from -10° to -25°, with some of the higher terrain perhaps getting to -40°!  Additional periods of blustery conditions late Thursday and again later Saturday into next Monday could result in more periods of extremely low and DANGEROUS wind chill conditions.

Stay warm! Remember to not leave your pets outside in the cold.

Meteorological Memories

   I was sort of "shamed" into cleaning up my office AKA my "man cave" by my daughter. She remarked about how cluttered and messy it looked with all the vanilla folders, loose-leaf binders and books, strewn about the room both on my makeshift coffee table, desks (I have two of them in the room) and on the various shelves and storage bins that I also have in the room.

  She asked, "When was the last time you read or used that 'stuff'' ?  Some of it looks like it is ancient!"  I then  paused and realized she made a  valid point.  (Okay, she was right.) So I began the massive cleanup (which I really did intend on doing along but my usual procrastination prevented me from doing so until now).

  Some of these papers and booklets were indeed old! They were memories from my days as an "amateur" meteorologist. In the folders and binders are pamphlets and booklets that I purchased from the U.S. Government Printing Office in Washington, D.C. when I was 9 and 10 years old! (That makes them  over 50 years old!!) For sentimental reasons I have kept them (and will keep them). In many ways these and all my other papers and books in my weather collection are my personal weather history of my years in weather AND also a history of the field of meteorology, itself.

  What was in these folders and binders ? Some contained AMS Meteorological monographs, others had books, pamphlets and articles on assorted topics in meteorology (and oceanography, too which I studied as well, when I was in college).  Some of the books and articles dealt with short and long range weather forecasting. Others were on topics like tropical meteorology and or hurricane forecasting. It was hurricanes  taht got me interested in meteorology. It was my faint recollections of Hurricane Donna that peaked my interest in weather.

  Other papers in my collection dealt with topics such as: atmospheric (planetary waves), severe weather, winter weather case studies and forecasting of such for various parts of the U.S. including the Northeast. Some of these papers were from my college days back in the early 70s. They were required reading for my studies; some of the more recent ones were procured for personal research for projects that I either did or intended to do (and still hope to do). I also found my two research papers that I did on severe weather for the area: One on the Mechanicville Tornado that occurred in May of 1998 and the other on an early morning severe weather event (and a rare November tornado in Columbia county) over Eastern NY State. The former paper I presented at the Northeast Storm Conference in Saratoga Springs in March 1999.

  Enough of the reminiscing. Onto my "cleaning" project and my dilemma: What do I toss and what to keep?  First I began condensing 'stuff'. I organized my binders into topics and then placed the articles that matched the topic into a LARGE loose leaf binder. My "tropical" weather folders were far and away the most in number. So I threw out a lot of papers, articles and booklets, especially articles from the 60s and even 50s. However, I did keep a couple from this "era". There was a paper on Hurricane Donna and its two eyes. This paper was procured for me by a very special and dear  friend who knew how this hurricane started me on my road to my career in meteorology.

   Tied for second place in the bloated folders and binders category were my severe weather and winter weather forecasting ones. Some of the papers were from the 1970 and earlier. Some of them were "old school" forecast techniques that are now no longer used (much). I at least for now can still recall the techniques and use them today if needed. Regardless, I threw many of them away.  I also realized that  in some cases, I had duplicates and even a few triplicates of articles and research papers.  No sentimentalism here- this is an easy decision, toss them out!

  The project that I was "shamed" into doing is now near complete, at least as far as the condensing goes.   I lost track of how many vanilla folders I discarded  in my cleaning but I do know I know that I now  have 18 loose-leaf binders that I was able to clear out completely. (If anyone needs loose-leaf binders, let me know I'll give you a better deal than Staples!)

  This project got me reminiscing of my days as a "amateur" weatherman. Definitely this will be another blog post in the not too distant future.

[I will be adding some photos soon!]

Another Accumulating snowfall for the Higher Elevations

In less than one week another snowfall accumulating snowfall is in store for the higher elevations of the #518 area. Just like last Saturday night-early Sunday morning's snow, locations AT and Above 1500 feet have the highest chance for see a moderate snow accumulation.

Near the 1500 foot location snowfall amounts will be near 2-3 inches, near 2000 feet, 3-5" of snow are likely and elevations > 3000 feet will likely see 5-7" of snow with a couple of locally higher amounts possible. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is in effect for Thursday 27 Oct 2016 for the Adirondacks and western Catskills. The snow will mix with some sleet and perhaps briefly some freezing rain before changing over to all rain by late Thursday night

Below is a  forecast animation (from the Hi-Res WRF model) showing the expected development of the rain and snow across eastern NY State and western New England.

It looks like Thursday evening's commute home will be when the "worst" of the wintry weather will occur. Be safe if you must travel!

Sayonara Indian Summer, at least for now.....

Some much needed rain will be heading our way. It should start by late Thursday and not taper off until early Sunday. Keep the rain gear and umbrellas handy, as the rainfall will be frequent and widespread versus intermittent and scattered and it will also be locally heavy at times, too. Even though it has been dry, locally heavy rain could lead to some flooding in areas of poor drainage, low spots and urban areas.

Also it will turn much colder, as in BELOW normal cold by late Saturday into Sunday. Rain will probably mix with if not even change to snow over the higher elevations (AOA 1,500 feet) of the northern Adirondacks. It wouldn't surprise me if there were some minor accumulations here!

It will also turn windy over the weekend, winds may gust to 40-50mph across the #518wx from late Saturday right through most of Sunday.

Hurricane Matthew still remains a powerful storm

The latest advisory as of 11 PM EDT has the center of Hurricane Matthew located about 325 miles Southwest of Port  Au Prince, Haiti. It was moving North at 5 mph with maximum winds of 145 mph and a central pressure that is a bit lower now at 943 mb or 27.85". The past 48 + hours have been remarkable in terms of the storm maintaining it's Categiry 4 intensity. Often major hurricanes see fluctuations in intensity but not this storm.

The latest satellite picture shows a well defined eye of about 10 nm in diameter embedded with in a feature called a Central Dense Overcast (CDO), the bright white circular ring around the eye (refer to image below).

Another perspective of the storm's structure is an IR enhanced photo (image below) showing cloud top temperatures. The bright orange color ringing around the the eye of Matthew are cloud top temperatures of -70° C or colder, indicative of very tall/high cloud tops.

The image below is from an ASCAT satellite pass. This satellite can observe wind speed and direction. The wind barbs show a very tightly wrapped cyclonic circulation with very strong winds. The pennants or triangles are for wind speeds of 50 knots, 2 pennants on one wind barb equals 100 knots and the satellite was able to observe winds of this speed.

One of the reasons why Matthew has been able to maintain its intensity is that it is in an area of favorable divergent winds aloft and very low wind shear (image below) as well as being over extremely warm waters, where sea-surface temperatures are in the low to mid 80s.

Hurricane Warnings and Watches along with Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are posted for Caribbean Islands and the Bahamas:

The official NHC track has Matthew moving in a general north direction. Thus the center  of Matthew will not make landfall on Jamaica and could even just pass to the west of Haiti. However, with tropical systems that move in a northerly direction the worst rainfall (and wind is to the right or east of the center. This means that parts of extreme western Haiti could experience hurricane force winds and will also likely receive very heavy rainfall. where amounts of 15-25 inches are forecast (even east to the southwest parts of the Dominican Republic) and some local amounts to 40 inches could also occur here. Needless to say rainfall totals such as these will likely produce catastrophic flooding and flash flooding. The eye of the storm is expected to make landfall on the east end of Cuba late Tuesday resulting in some slight weakening but even so Matthew is expected to remain a major hurricane as it moves across the central Bahamas during late Tuesday through Wednesday.

And by the end of this week Matthew is expected to be a few hundred miles off the Carolina's coastline. It is something that all of the East Coast states will have to watch, including all of us here in Upstate New York. I'll keep you posted.

Tropical Storm Matthew

The  Tropical-disturbance-in-atlantic-invest.html that I posted on yesterday has become Tropical Storm (TS) Matthew. The satellite loop from CIMSS (below) indicates that TS Matthew continues to slowly organize. The outflow on the north side of the storm is good and is fair to the south. The storm's proximity to the continent of South America will likely mean only a gradual intensification of the storm over the next 24 hours, nonetheless it is expected to become a minimal hurricane.

Upper air winds are favorable for a steady development based on the latest high-level wind analysis from the UW-Madison Tropical Cyclone analysis page:

The area of unfavorable shear (image below) continues to recede westward ahead of Matthew's as the storm travels toward the west  or slightly north of west motion over the next 72 hours.

Thereafter, once it nears 75° W longitude model data is  forecasting Matthew to make a hard (anti-NASCAR) right-turn.

As the spatial separation increases between the storm and the coast of South America, the system is expected to intensify at a slightly faster rate; I think that during the post-72 hour period as the storm turns north there is the potential for it to undergo a period of rapid intensification. But again for now thinking/being conservative here.

At 11 PM Matthew was located approximately about 370 miles/595 kilometers SSE of San Juan, Puerto Rico or about 370 miles ENE of the Island of Curacao. Maximum winds were 65 mph with higher gusts and the storm was moving West at 15 mph.

Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are posted for some islands in the Lesser Antilles and along the north coast of Venezuela.

Time will tell what, if any, impacts Matthew will have on the U.S. mainland. Already, the internet is abuzz with wanna be meteorologists making unfounded posts of meteorological armageddon based on long range weather models. Make sure what you view online is from a credible source - either from the NWS, NHC or a credible meteorologist! Rest assured, I'll be keeping both eyes on this system.

Tropical Disturbance in Atlantic - Invest 97L

A  tropical disturbance (97L) in the Atlantic Ocean located about 415 miles to the east-southeast of the island of Barbados is showing signs of becoming better organized this afternoon. Hurricane hunters are tasked to do a reconnaissance of it this afternoon.

Based on satellite wind data and minimal surface reports the system doesn't appear to have a closed cyclonic circulation at the moment. Below is a visible satellite picture of the system on the left and the satellite winds on the right.

(Visible Satellite Imagery oif 97L)

(High Level Wind Analysis over and around 97L)

(Current Divergence Analysis)

Of interest is the wind field in and around the disturbance. The wind flow is anticyclonic or diverging. Divergence increases upward motion of the air (image to right) and causes a lowering of the atmospheric pressure at the surface,

 In addition to divergence, tropical systems need warm ocean waters Sea Surface Temperatures/SST) of at least 26°C/78°F for their development or intensification. The disturbance is currently over SSTs of 28°C to 30°C (image below).

(Sea Surface Temperature analysis)

The other favorable element for potential development is for little wind shear aloft. Strong shear (of 20kts or greater) disrupts a tropical system's circulation and structure. Shear can inhibit development or even weaken a tropical system. Based on the latest wind shear analysis (image below), the shear is favorable (i.e., LOW) over 97L., but to its west the shear is strong (unfavorable).

(Current Wind shear)

However many of the forecast models are forecasting this shear to relax considerably over the next two days, that is these forecast aids are indicating little shear as 97L moves into the Eastern Caribbean Sea.

The forecast model spaghetti plots for 97L are clustered around a W to WNW heading through the end of the week. Of these models that forecast intensity of tropical systems, most if not all are forecasting 97L to become at least a tropical storm. If this did occur then 97L would be christened "Matthew".

(Forecast model ensemble tracks for 97L)

Per the NHC, "Interests in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, Bonaire,Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast of South America should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of whether the system is a tropical wave or tropical cyclone, heavy rains and tropical-storm-force winds in squalls are expected to spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Leeward Islands, beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday."

Credits: First 5 images from University of Wisconsin CIMSS Tropical System web site: CIMSS

Prolonged Wet Spell Still Likely

Much needed rain fall occurred across parts of the Northeast States on Wednesday morning helping to begin to ease the dry and drought conditions across parts of the region. Nonetheless a severe drought continues for most of the Northeast. Areas of west-central and western New York State as well as a good portion of Southern New England remain in moderate or severe drought as shown in the image below.

.

From the US Drought monitoring service here is the discussion regarding the Northeast's drought:

"Moderate to heavy rains, locally exceeding 5 inches, fell on areas from southwestern New England southward and eastward into the mid-Atlantic and through the central Appalachians. These rains removed dryness and drought from most of West Virginia and in the mid-Atlantic south of the Mason-Dixon line, but only scattered improvement was noted elsewhere. In eastern and northern New England, where only light rain fell, severe drought expanded through most of Massachusetts, and moderate drought covered the rest of southern New England. Rainfall deficits for the past 90 days range from 4 to 9 inches in much of this region. In addition, long-term rainfall shortages remain entrenched, with accumulated shortfalls over the past 2 years of 12 to 24 inches observed from central New England southward into northeastern Pennsylvania. Temperatures averaged a few degrees above normal this past week, exacerbating conditions."

However there is going to be a definite pattern change as it relates to our dearth of rainfall. As I mentioned in my update A Drippy Looking Long Range, the next 7 days upcoming will feature frequent bouts of  showery rains and thunderstorms with any shower or storm capable of producing torrential rain. Even though it has been dry and the rain will be absorbed by the ground, there is the chance that too much rain could fall in a short time period (like 2 hours or less) resulting in the threat for flash flooding. Definitely something to keep an eye on.  

Weather data is coming into agreement on both what periods during the next 7 days will be the rainiest and how much rainfall is possible.  For Eastern NY State and Western New England (our neck of the woods) the best chance for widespread rain  will be from Thursday into next Monday. The best chance for getting soaked will be during the afternoon hours right up through early night (10 PM or so). The exception to this will be this Saturday August 13th when the rain could start earlier and will probably continue well into the early morning hours of Sunday before it diminishes from NW to SE as Sunday moves on. This same weather data continues to indicate that precipitable water values over the next 5 days will be  near +3 standard deviations (SD) above  normal with values rising to near +4 SD on Saturday. These high deviations above normal strongly favor heavy rain. And once again several features will come together in time and place to efficiently make the heavy rain happen..

Here is the 7 DAY TOTAL AMOUNT of rain expected. (Forecast is from the Weather Prediction Center) It is for the 168 hour period from 8 AM Wed 10 Aug through next Wednesday, 8 AM 17 August:

The forecast map indicates a widespread 1.5-2 inch rain fall for us with more than a few locations getting 3 to even locally near 4". Keep in mind this the total expected rainfall for the next 7 days . BUT as for our region goes, I think that most of this heavy rain will occur in the Friday through Sunday morning period, with Saturday seeing the most rain.

A Drippy Looking Long Range

Long range forecast data as well as teleconnections and analogs are pointing to some potentially interesting weather for the Northeast states during the 10th-14th of August. We could be in for a prolonged period of wet and unsettled weather. Some of the unsettled weather could be in the form of possible strong thunderstorms. But like most severe weather threats much will depend on S.L.I.M factors, that is (wind) Shear, Lift, Instability and Moisture and how these ingredients come together in both time and place.

Severe weather possibility aside,  forecast data is indicating some high (octane) moisture swirling our way from late Wednesday into the upcoming weekend. Forecast data is indicating higher than normal precipitable water (PW) content over the Northeast US during this time period.

What is precipitable water (PW)?

PW is defined as the depth of water that would accumulate on the ground if all the moisture in the air above you fell as rain. So if PW in the column of air above has a value of let's say 1 or 2 inches then under prefect conditions you would see one or two inches of rain. PW values vary by day and season. By season there are "normal" PW values. So by comparing either the actual day's PW value or forecast value, one can assess the potential for significant precipitation.

Forecast PW departures from normal for the period Aug 10th-14th

The ensemble forecast  average is indicated on the charts above. This forecast value is then "compared" to normal PW values for the given dates. The comparison yields how many standard deviations (SD) ABOVE or BELOW normal the forecast PW values are. The greater the number of deviations the more anomalous the parameter is. The above data is taken from the GEFS forecast data sets and indicates that PW values will be near 2-3 SD above normal for much of this time, with SD increasing to +3 to +4 SD above normal on Saturday. These above normal SD values of precipitable water would tend to favor the possibility of a lot of rain, locally heavy on Wednesday, and then again from later Thursday through the first half of next Sunday the 14th.

To "wring" or condense the moisture out of the air the next weekend we'll need a lifting mechanism. . it looks like a stronger than normal (for mid-August)  low pressure system (by -2 to -3 SD; image above) will be moving across the Eastern States and provide the lift needed.

So for now the end of this week and next weekend looks like a prolonged period of wet weather is heading our way. We do need the rain, but there is the chance that some of us may wind up with too much rain in too short a period of time.

As of now forecast data sources indicate  locally heavy rainfall is possible on Wednesday with a better threat for more substantial widespread rainfall next Friday through Sunday. For now conservatively a widespread 1.5-2.5 inches could fall during this period but as always there could be locally higher amounts.

How high is the question. Small scale/mesoscale features like  thunderstorms: where do they form and how do they move could be factors in enhancing local rain fall amounts. Will these storms repeatedly form or move over the same locations?  Other features like outflow boundaries (which are caused by convection) and their interactions with other large and small scale weather features COULD lead to some local enhanced heavy rain amounts, too. This in turn could perhaps cause some local flooding issues.  The "small" and mesoscale systems are near impossible to predict days ahead but based on past experience, I think that they will show up as we get closer to the end of this week .

I'll be watching, as should you by keeping up on the latest weather forecasts.