May 8, 2015

May Day...May Day!

From wikipedia: Mayday is an emergency procedure word used internationally as a distress signal in voice procedure radio communications.

Some wild May Day weather across the country today through the weekend.

The National forecast map from WPC shows it all: A nasty spring storm out west with a variety of hazardous weather and Subtropical Storm ANA off the SEUS coast acquiring tropical features.


The storm over the Panhandle region is expected to cause a significant severe weather out break across the Central and Southern Plains this evening through Saturday perhaps even into Sunday.
A MODERATE severe weather threat is expected through tonight across Oklahoma. This threat includes possible damaging long track tornadoes.



There are already Tornado Watches posted for parts of the Plains States


To the northwest of the low winter weather including a very heavy wet snow fall is expected; perhaps even near-blizzard conditions for parts of Wyoming and western South Dakota. Some of the potentially "wildest" weather will be across Colorado where tornadoes are possible around Denver and point east by south of there, to heavy snow across the Foothills to the west of Denver!

Meanwhile off the coast of North and South Carolina Subtropical Storm ANA is slowly acquiring tropical features. Here is the 5PM EDT 8 May 2015 advisory:

Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Lookout

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ana.

Indeed some distressing May Day weather for parts of the Nation.

May 7, 2015

Subtropical Storm Ana

The NHC has issued its first advisory on the season's first subtropical storm - ANA.

BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015

1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015
...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
LOCATION...31.5N 77.6W

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA 
TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS..
ANA is expected to intensify a bit before making landfall  over the coast of the  over the weekend and it could acquire tropical features as it moves slowly over the warm waters of the Gulfstream current.  
Radius of maximum winds and Tropical Storm Watch area
Strongest winds are displaced well away from the center but in time are expected to draw closer to the center of circulation.

Radar and track of Ana thus far
 Some of the heavier showers are flirting with the coast of North and South Carolina.
TC guidance tracks




Cyclone track guidance is in very good agreement for Ana to turn NW and make landfall on the South Carolina coast and then turn northeastward  late in the weekend through early next week. The system could prove to be a beneficial rain producer for parts  of the Easter U.S. including NY States
Below is the forecast track from the NHC. Once Ana makes landfll it is expected to weaken considerably. 
Official NHC forecast track for Ana