Jun 28, 2014

Potential for Tropical system off the Southeast US Coast

An area of disturbed weather off the the Southeast U.S. coast has been designated (disturbance) 91L by the National Hurricane Center. While not a true warm core system - yet - it will develop a warm core over time. Pic 1 is the location of the low and the convection associated with it.
Pic 1
  
 As you can see the the area of lowest atmospheric pressure is removed from the area of strongest convection. This is a satellite signature of unfavorable wind shear aloft which leads to a very disorganized system.





 
Pic 2

The model tracks for this nascent system are displayed in (Pic 2). There is a lot of "scatter" (basically in two clusters):  one group/cluster tracking the system toward the SW, while the other is on a track toward the SE. So a forecast S-SE motion is forecast. likely.





Since the motion is toward the south -  and south moving tropical systems tend not develop much or only very gradually (in the northern hemisphere) - only a slight or low probability (Pic 3) for development of this system is expected over the next 48 hours. 

Pic 3

If the system should intensify and attain sustained wind speeds of 40 mph or more then it will be "christened" with the name Arthur.