Sep 5, 2013

Quick Update on the Tropics

Activity has increased a bit over the Atlantic basin over the past few days. Here is the Thursday morning Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center:



 Late yesterday a Tropical Depression (#7) formed to the south of Puerto Rico and then briefly intensified into Tropical Storm Gabrielle late yesterday evening. Today the system has once again weakened into a poorly organized depression. The weakening occurred due to proximity to the islands in the Greater Antilles (namely Hispaniola) and strong winds aloft from the west causing shear. As I stated in my previous post on the tropics shear is an unfavorable element for tropical cyclone development.

As I also mentioned in my last blog post with the negative factors currently in place across the Atlantic for the moment only a few geographic locations over the basin favored potential development. One area that I mentioned was the Bay of Campeche. This morning an area of disturbed weather (satellite image to the left)  is showing some increase in organization and convection. There is a bit of shear aloft over the system at the moment but it is forecast to ease during the next 12-24 hours. As this disturbance moves W-WNW over the next 24-36 hours, there is a chance for it to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm before it moves onto the mainland of Mexico.

Lastly there is a 3rd area of showers and storms over the Eastern Atlantic to the west of the Cape Verde Islands. This is associated with a tropical wave. It is poorly organized with no signs of a closed low pressure circulation. Numerous negative factors - shear and SAL ( see my previous blog post to learn more about SAL) over the next few days will preclude any significant development of this system.

So as it stands now the Atlantic has had 7 named tropical systems and still NONE have become  hurricane.