Feb 5, 2015

February Shiver

The first four days of the month of February have been way below normal across a good part of the Northeast U.S. As shown on the map (to the left) from The Northeast Regional Climate Center. Some locations across the Northeast are 15°BELOW normal or lower for the month already (grant it we're not quite through the first week)! Some selected average monthly temperatures and departures from normal from across NY State and Western New England through the first four days of the month are as follows (average monthly temperature is given first; number in parentheses is the departure from normal): ALBANY: 11.4° (-12.1°); GLENS FALLS: 2.8° (-15.2°) (I'm actually amazed at the value for Glens Falls! They did drop to -27° on the 3rd and so far every night this month has been well BELOW 0°); BENNINGTON: 8.9° (-13.6°); PITTSFIELD: 11.1° (-10.1°)

Percentage of 105 analogs with Below (blue) or Above reds/oranges
The map to the right is from the CIPS Extended Analog web site, and it shows the percentage of 105 analogs that either had above or below temperatures. The map is for is for the period Feb 11-13 and it indicates that 65% or more of the analogs had BELOW normal cold for the Eastern U.S. Those same analogs indicate potential temperatures of 6° to 10° BELOW normal (map below). Also keep in mind ensemble data tends to average out or smooth atmospheric anomalies out so these temperatures could even be colder.                                                                                          
Forecast Temperature Anomaly for 2/11-13/2015

And if you're looking for any moderation or warmth forget it. The analog data (map to the right) for the period 17-19 February shows an even greater chance for below normal temperatures perhaps by as much as 12° or more colder than normal.

I'll have more on the expected snow this weekend into next week late tomorrow.