Sep 10, 2015

What I did,normally don't do, have done and will be doing!

Last semester one of my college classes was on learning the nuances of MS Excel. We had to do a final project for the class using the various analytical, mathematical, and chart/graphing tools that Excel has. I chose a project that used Excels statistical functions, "Boolean operator tools"  (GOOGLE Boolean operators to find out what they are), and graphing tools, to see if there was any correlation between fall temperatures and the upcoming winter's snowfall. The study was done for Glens Falls, NY. This study was modelled after one that was done for Boston, MA.

The study was done to see if there was any correlation between fall temperatures departures from normal (for the months of October and November) and the upcoming winter snowfall.

In any sort of a forecast that I make, using statistical analysis of  weather data is part of my mix. With any sort of a long-range "outlook" statistics can prove extremely useful.

Now I normally don't make winter weather outlooks. Heck forecasting the next 5 to 7 days of weather is enough of a challenge for me let alone trying to forecast for a whole 3 month season that is still a quarter of a year away from starting! Yet, quite a few folks are asking me what this winter will be like. especially since some folks are already coming out with their forecast and  the Farmer's Almanac is also out, too.

So here is what I will do. I'll hold off on my not very specific winter weather outlook until November is almost done and in my next blog post I'll have more detailed information including nice charts and statistical data from my class project from last semester to see what if any correlation does exist between fall temperatures and the upcoming winter snowfall.