Sep 28, 2016

Tropical Storm Matthew

The  Tropical-disturbance-in-atlantic-invest.html that I posted on yesterday has become Tropical Storm (TS) Matthew. The satellite loop from CIMSS (below) indicates that TS Matthew continues to slowly organize. The outflow on the north side of the storm is good and is fair to the south. The storm's proximity to the continent of South America will likely mean only a gradual intensification of the storm over the next 24 hours, nonetheless it is expected to become a minimal hurricane.

Upper air winds are favorable for a steady development based on the latest high-level wind analysis from the UW-Madison Tropical Cyclone analysis page:
The area of unfavorable shear (image below) continues to recede westward ahead of Matthew's as the storm travels toward the west  or slightly north of west motion over the next 72 hours.

Thereafter, once it nears 75° W longitude model data is  forecasting Matthew to make a hard (anti-NASCAR) right-turn.
As the spatial separation increases between the storm and the coast of South America, the system is expected to intensify at a slightly faster rate; I think that during the post-72 hour period as the storm turns north there is the potential for it to undergo a period of rapid intensification. But again for now thinking/being conservative here.

At 11 PM Matthew was located approximately about 370 miles/595 kilometers SSE of San Juan, Puerto Rico or about 370 miles ENE of the Island of Curacao. Maximum winds were 65 mph with higher gusts and the storm was moving West at 15 mph.

Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are posted for some islands in the Lesser Antilles and along the north coast of Venezuela.

Time will tell what, if any, impacts Matthew will have on the U.S. mainland. Already, the internet is abuzz with wanna be meteorologists making unfounded posts of meteorological armageddon based on long range weather models. Make sure what you view online is from a credible source - either from the NWS, NHC or a credible meteorologist! Rest assured, I'll be keeping both eyes on this system.