May 5, 2015

Forecast Quiet Hurricane Season Could Start Early

Satellite imagery is showing a sprawling area of clouds off the East Coast of Florida. At the surface a trough of low pressure extends from north of Cuba through the Bahamas.  This area is expected to gradually organize into a low pressure area over the next few days.



The National Center in Miami is issuing a medium (40%-60% ) chance for this system to organize into a potential subtropical cyclone over the next 48 to 96 hours.
The system is expected to bring some beneficial rains to South Florida and also produce some rough surf along its east coast northward to the Georgia and Carolina's shoreline as well as dangerous rip currents.
I mentioned in the title of this post it is expected to be a rather quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic this year.  Colorado State University has come out with its first outlook for the season.

The reason for an inactive season a moderate to strong El Nino is expected and Atlantic Ocean water temperatures are averaging colder than normal. Just a note of caution - this outlook doesn't mean that storms won't affect the U.S. Mainland. So due diligence is still needed for residents along the U.S. coast from Texas to Maine.