May 7, 2015

Subtropical Storm Ana

The NHC has issued its first advisory on the season's first subtropical storm - ANA.

BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015

1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015
...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
LOCATION...31.5N 77.6W

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA 
TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS..
ANA is expected to intensify a bit before making landfall  over the coast of the  over the weekend and it could acquire tropical features as it moves slowly over the warm waters of the Gulfstream current.  
Radius of maximum winds and Tropical Storm Watch area
Strongest winds are displaced well away from the center but in time are expected to draw closer to the center of circulation.

Radar and track of Ana thus far
 Some of the heavier showers are flirting with the coast of North and South Carolina.
TC guidance tracks




Cyclone track guidance is in very good agreement for Ana to turn NW and make landfall on the South Carolina coast and then turn northeastward  late in the weekend through early next week. The system could prove to be a beneficial rain producer for parts  of the Easter U.S. including NY States
Below is the forecast track from the NHC. Once Ana makes landfll it is expected to weaken considerably. 
Official NHC forecast track for Ana